Will Keir Starmer be the fourth wheel of Labour?

Will Keir Starmer chart history for Labour and the UK?

Nearly half a century has passed since 'old' Labour last won a general election under the leadership of its dexterous leader, Harold Wilson. Ever since then, only the Tories or 'new' Labour branded in the image of Tony Blair have had success at the ballot box.

Ever since the great economic meltdown occurred during Liz Truss' brief watch at the top, the polls have swung firmly in favour of Labour. However, there is doubt whether this lead will be consolidated or will evaporate once the election season commences. Starmer lacks the popularity which Blair, Wilson and Clement Attlee (the only leaders to lead Labour to victory) had enjoyed during their tenure as the Leader of the Opposition, in the leadup to an election. Starmer is considerably less charismatic than Wilson and Blair and does not possess any ministerial experience, unlike Attlee and Wilson. Furthermore, Starmer has had to rebuild Labour, with the party having won its lowest share of seats since 1935, under its divisive leader, Jeremy Corbyn (now expelled from the party).

Apart from Blair who won two landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 and a reasonably stable majority in 2005, the other two successful Labour leaders, Attlee and Wilson had the fortune of winning only one election comprehensively apiece in 1945 and 1966 respectively, with their other wins being so wafer-thin compelling them to go to the electorate within months.

In this context, it must be noted that with delimitation being carried out, the contest has only become tougher for Labour- the new boundaries indicate that for Labour to just cross the majority mark, they will need a swing of around 12%, exceeding what Attlee had achieved for Labour in 1945.

Old timers might recall that the boundaries had often gone against Labour with the party losing the 1951 election to Winston Churchill despite winning a greater share of the vote (49%) when compared to the Tories (48%) as well as the highest popular vote (until the Tories broke the record in 1992 under John Major). Other instances include the elections held in 1950 and October 1974, where Labour had tantalizingly narrow majorities despite leading by nearly 5 percentage points. The aftereffect of this led to late-night votes, parliamentary rebellions and votes of no-confidence, often damaging the party's credibility in the process. In fact, in the subsequent elections, Labour was banished to the opposition benches for 13 years and 18 years respectively.

Labour must remember the bitter truth- the Tories have always had a leg-up in general elections. Ever since, the WW2, only on one occasion has the Tory party enjoyed a period of 5 or less years in power- that is, the tumultuous tenure of Edward Heath, often derided by modern-day Tories as an anti-Thatcherite. On the other hand, only under Tony Blair has the Labour party enjoyed a decade in power.

Starmer now has a momentous opportunity to break the mould and reshape a post-Brexit Britain similarly along the lines of Clement Attlee in the aftermath of the second world war and remain in office for a decade.

Starmer should do well to remember that the coming general election will be fought on the Tories' rising unpopularity and not on the merits of Labour. Starmer must also ensure that he is able to capture the hearts and minds of the voters. It is to be noted that ever since Attlee demitted leadership in 1955, Labour have crossed the threshold of 45% vote share just once- in 1966, even eluding the 'landslide' wins in 1997 and 2001. Even more worryingly, Starmer must remember that despite high disenchantment against the Tories in 1964 and 1974, Labour just squeaked home. It is also worth noting that Labour ending up bottling up 'guaranteed' wins in the elections of 1970 and 1992.

While the Tories are severely unpopular, there is a growing exhaustion with the political system as such. The general perception is that Starmer is yet to be seen as a compelling alternate leader, with Labour mainly cashing on the Tories' weakness. Critics have argued that Labour has generally won only in cases of lower voter turnout.

Where credit is due, it must be given. In 2020, when Starmer was elected as Labour leader, it would have been inconceivable to think that Labour would be a strong contender, yet alone the favourite in 2024. Yet complacency must not set in and Starmer must provide a trustworthy and credible alternative. Labour has been gifted a golden opportunity to remake Britain in its vision. They could either follow Attlee's strategy and establishment a new model of governance, tackling the crisis faced by the NHS and the housing sector, growing inequality and the economic meltdown caused by Brexit or follow Margaret Thatcher's policies of neo-liberalism which continue to set the political narrative even today.

Starmer and his team are expected to provide a healing touch to the British public and restore public services by introducing professionalism and credibility. Labour also enjoys the unenviable task of inheriting a failing economy and a hopeless society. The ball is now in Labour and Starmer's hands.