Why did Jim Callaghan not stay on as Labour leader and Leader of Opposition in 1980? What about the repercussions?

Why did Jim Callaghan not stay on as Labour leader and Leader of Opposition in 1980? What about the repercussions?

This is question that not many political commentators have seemed to ponder over, unlike the surprise resignation of his predecessor, Harold Wilson in 1976. It should have been considerably more noteworthy, considering that Wilson had continued as Labour leader following the surprise defeat to the Tories in 1970. Wilson returned to power in 1974, despite an economic crisis, possibly due to his experience as a former Prime Minister who could steady the ship and provide a reassuring hand to the country.

Callaghan and Labour were leading in the opinion polls in 1980 as well as having made significant gains in the local elections held that year, with Margaret Thatcher seen to be floundering and not managing the economy well at the time.

Reasons which might have triggered his resignation

1.       Following the disillusioning defeat in 1979, a change in rules with regard to Leadership election were brought about. This could have been a major incentive which led to Callaghan’s resignation as the trade unions were now allowed to vote in leadership election, which until then was exclusively open only to the Parliamentary party. This would significantly increase the chances of a radical left-wing candidate being elected leader while Callaghan preferred the moderate Denis Healey to succeed him as leader.

 

2.       Callaghan was approaching his seventies and was perceived to be out of touch following the Winter of discontent as well as having run a virtually minority government during his tenure as Premier. The press spread the propaganda “Crisis, What Crisis” and attributed it to Callaghan, tarnishing his credibility in the process. Additionally, his inability to prevent the trade unions from going on strike, despite his previous association with the unions, cast him as a helpless leader.

 

3.       The 1974 win under Wilson could be described to be pyrrhic as the first election led to a hung parliament while the second one led to a wafer thin majority, both on record low shares of votes for a government. The 1979 election had (at that time) seen the high swing of votes away from Labour towards the Tories in the post war era.

 

4.       Callaghan had already developed a poor reputation with regard to his handling of the economy, both during his tenure as Chancellor under Wilson from 1964-67 (which witnessed the devaluation of the sterliing), as well as his tenure as Premier.

Long term impact

Callaghan’s preferred successor, Denis Healey narrowly lost to Michael Foot, an ardent left-wing leader. This alienated many moderates within the party, eventually leading to the split of the party in 1981, with stalwarts such as Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rogers (Gang of Four) forming the Social Democrat Party (SDP) along with nearly 30 Labour MPs. In the 1983 General Election, Labour support drastically dropped with the party barely clinging onto 200 seats. Even more worryingly, the party was just 2% ahead of the Alliance in the popular vote share. A slight share of votes would have seen Labour slip to the 3^rd position and perhaps end its role as a major party, let alone a party of government.

Labour would subsequently go on to lose two more general elections and stayed in the opposition benches until 1997, when a severe economic meltdown under John Major as well as the emergence of Tony Blair led the party to its first election win in nearly 25 years and it obtaining a decisive majority in its favour for only the third time in history (1945 and 1966). This victory had come only after Labour was forced to give up its traditional socialist mantra, especially the hallmark Clause IV as well rebrand itself in the avatar of New Labour, which sought to create a third way, similar to what Bill Clinton had proposed.

In the long term, it is evident that Callaghan’s failure to hold an early election in October 1978 as well as his subsequent decision to resign from the leadership in November 1980, adversely impacted Labour, both ideologically and electorally as it went on to languish in the ‘wilderness’ for nearly 2 decades- unprecedented in Westminster politics. Had Callaghan or Denis Healey led Labour into 1983, they would have, at the very least put a credible showing in the polls as well as led the path for a future Labour win in 1991/92 (if not in 1987/88). It might also have not led to the emergence of one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair as its next Prime Minister.